Braves reportedly interested in Rays right-hander

The Braves are “keeping a close eye on” Zach Eflin as a potential trade target prior to the deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. 

Rotation help has been circled as a likely need for Atlanta ever since Spencer Strider was lost for the season to an internal brace surgery, and Eflin stands out as a potentially intriguing choice for several reasons.

First and foremost, Eflin is again pitching well in terms of bottom-line results with a 4.12 ERA over 10 starts and 59 innings. The right-hander continues to be among the best control specialists in the game with a sterling 1.6% walk rate, though there are some red flags in other notable categories. 

Eflin is again among the league leaders in barrels even if his barrel rate is only slightly below average, but his hard-hit ball rate (41.6%) and strikeout rate (17.9%) are also both subpar. He was well above average in both categories in 2023, when Eflin’s first season in Tampa Bay resulted in a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.

A contender like the Braves won’t necessarily be scared off by Eflin’s 2024 numbers, as they are very familiar with Eflin’s work after dealing with him as a division rival during Eflin’s years with the Phillies. Durability might also be a concern given Eflin’s long history of knee problems, but he tossed 182 2/3 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs and had only a brief IL stint due to a bad back.

These are all good reasons why the Rays themselves might naturally want to keep Eflin in their own rotation as they continue to vie for another postseason berth. Tampa Bay is 11-6 in its last 17 games, a hot streak that has gotten the club back up to a 25-23 record after a mediocre April. 

Eflin has also been a stabilizing force in a rotation beset by injuries, even if some reinforcements are on the way. Ryan Pepiot could return from the 15-day IL this week in his recovery from a leg contusion, Shane Baz (currently on a rehab assignment) and Jeffrey Springs are tentatively expected to return from Tommy John surgery rehab in July or August and Drew Rasmussen is on roughly the same timeline after he underwent an internal brace procedure last July.

If at least one of Springs, Baz or Rasmussen is already back by the deadline and the Rays are comfortable with the recovery status of the others, it is possible Tampa Bay might feel comfortable counting on these internal arms to help fill the gap created by trading Eflin. 

It is a risk that most teams might not take, and yet as always with the Rays, payroll could be a factor in their decision-making.  Eflin is in the second season of a three-year, $40M contract that was paid out as $11M in both 2023 and 2024 and then $18M in 2025.  (He also receives a $1M bonus in the event of a trade.)

Moving Eflin would allow the Rays to avoid the backloaded final portion of that contract and get the remainder of Eflin’s 2024 salary also off the books. Even if Eflin isn’t dealt at the deadline, it stands to reason that the Rays might explore moving him this offseason, similar to how the club dealt Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers last winter before Glasnow was owed $25M in 2024 under the terms of his previous contract.

Acquiring Eflin would also have some interesting payroll implications for a Braves team whose projected luxury tax number (as per RosterResource) sits at approximately $272.5M.  This is already well into the second tax tier and not far off the third tier that begins at $277M. 

Atlanta hasn’t been shy in spending big in pursuit of another World Series title, but crossing the $277M threshold carries the secondary penalty of a 10-slot drop for the Braves’ first selection in the 2025 draft. Eflin being controlled through 2025 might carry some particular for the Braves, however, as Max Fried and Charlie Morton will both be free agents this winter.

Alex Anthopoulos and Erik Neander are two of the most creative executives in baseball, so any number of interesting Atlanta/Tampa trades could be devised that would perhaps allow Eflin to change teams while also allowing the Braves to stay under that third luxury tax tier. 

The Rays could eat a larger portion of Eflin’s contract in order to obtain a better prospect return from the Braves, or perhaps a third team could be brought into the talks to balance things out.

Atlanta’s rotation has still been pretty solid even without Strider, as Braves starters entered Sunday with a combined 3.44 ERA (10th-best in baseball). Fried, Morton, Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez have all been good to great, though Sale’s durability is always a question mark and Lopez (who has a sparkling 1.34 ERA) is in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020, and he hasn’t tossed more than 66 innings in a season since 2019.

Bryce Elder is the fifth starter and Darius Vines, Allan Winans, Huascar Ynoa and top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep provide additional depth, though a pitcher like Eflin could be more of a proven commodity for a team with championship aspirations.